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A very wise Anon
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Well in the time that has passed since this post was first made, facebook has changed the name of the list to IntialChatFriendsList, probably in an effort to allay any suspicions of a "stalking list" and basically provide a more descriptive name of what it actually is. Anyway, my friends and I have created a very plausible explanation as to how facebook determines who is going to be on your list and what "rank" they'll be.
Now the list is definitely in some sort of order based on some ranking number (that likely ranges from +1 to -1) that is based on a whole number of factors that allows them to generate the ordered list. Now as far as we can tell, the most important factors are the following:
1. Who do you actually chat with on facebook... when determining who they should put on your top chat bar, fb will most likely put the people you actually communicate with on your chat bar.
2. Who do you have public interactions with... facebook is most likely going to assume that you have more reason to talk to the people that tag you in (or that you tag in) at some location, the people that you're tagged w/ in pictures, and the people who actually post on your wall.
3. Who on facebook do you share groups with/attend the same events. I admit, I've had difficulty proving this one, but I'm fairly certain that these must play a role in determining the list as well.
Now after this, it gets a little tricky, because now there is no more actual interactions for facebook to base this list off of, only the more discrete data it compiles on everybody. At this point the "stalker" theory comes into play, but not quite as simply as you guys think it is.
In my case, the first person on my list is a person i very frequently talk to on fb chat, but second place is interesting because aside from 1 or 2 pictures together and the occasional "like" we have 0 interactions (far less than people who are much lower on my list), but I do know that she is likely to view my page frequently and I view her page occasionally as well. There are other people who's pages I would visit more, yet they do not show up on my list, because there is less mutual interaction (even if it is just page views) with these people. The next few people on the list are determined by #2, these are people who I don't necessarily talk w/ a lot on facebook, but we are tagged in a lot of content together so fb immediately recognizes them as persons of interest.
Moving a little lower on the list now, we are reaching around 6-10 territory here are people I have a "history" with (not relationship history, just fb history lol). These are people who I've been friends with for a long time and maintain steady communication with, but not frequent. Moving a little lower on the list, we hit individuals who I know were interested in me so it is likely they view (or viewed) my page frequently at one point or another, and I of course also viewed their pages as well, which explains their placement on the list.
Now I find it interesting that some individuals recommended that people facebook recognizes as relatives would be pushed up higher on the list, but I do not believe this to be the case. My brother was relatively high on the list, but that is also because he has reason to view my page and I have reason to view his, and we do communicate through facebook from time to time, not as much anymore though. I don't think facebook considers family when creating the chat bar, simply because of this: who actual wants to talk to their relatives. If you interact with them frequently, they'll be up there, but usually people only want to hear from their relatives at Christmas. (I should note that the people actually listed as relatives on my fb are not even on my list, or at least the part that i checked)
Now some of the posts people have made claim that people they never talk to/interact with on facebook are very high up on their list while people they do interact with a lot of facebook being very low on the list. I have two explanations for this: (note: don't take this part too seriously until you read what I wrote after it) 1, you're a liar and you know it; 2, you're a loser w/ no social life so facebook just doesn't know what to do with you.
This list is based purely off interactions (public and private) and if you don't interact with them, chances are facebook is not going to assume that you want to talk to that person, so they won't put them on your list. NOW, in some cases the same people would pop into my list (individuals who I definately never view their page or interact with their page, and I doubt they view/interact with mine). They would show up at various ranks, sometimes very high (#5 was the highest I've seen). Its always the same individuals, but their placement is so sporadic that I believe its just some flaw in the fb chat bar logic that hasn't been worked out. I generated an actual list of people who are always in the same spot (with very slight variations) and this list makes complete sense based on the explanations I have put forward so far.
Anyway, I should mention that a couple of the girls that I would say I stalk, but definately do not return the favor (haha) are somewhere around the 50s on my list, while ones that I stalk, and they would return the favor and maybe stalk me back a little bit are somewhere in the 20-30 range.
So, my conclusion is that this list is based on MUTUAL interactions, but individual interactions (i.e you stalking them and them stalking you) do play a part is well, but the complexity of the means by which facebook determines this makes it very difficult to distinguish the two (at least in my case).
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